Questioni di soldi

Il blog ora è felice di dare spazio ad un paio di estratti da due articoli della stampa inglese, giusto per entrare un po’ più nel merito.

All’inizio della crisi il Guardian aveva svolto una breve sintesi del profilo economico del paese..

 

Whatever happens next in this sordid saga on the Danube, no one should have been surprised that Hungary’s economy is indeed in dire straits. The investment bank Goldman Sachs earlier this month rated Hungary as the riskiest of the world’s emerging market investment destination. Other elements of the crisis include a credit boom, funded by heavy borrowing in foreign currencies, mainly euros and Swiss francs, creating dangerous vulnerability to exchange rate fluctuations. The IMF has been warning of the dangers of a wider eastern European financial crisis – Turkey and Serbia are similarly at risk and there are worries about others. With populist pressure growing over the accession of Romania and Bulgaria, to say nothing of Turkey to come, the EU itself looks alarmingly exposed.  (Guardian.co.hu 20.9.2006)

Recentemente TransitiononLine (www.tol.hu), autorevole gionale online in lingua inglese con base a Praga, ha svolto un’analisi sulle crisi politiche ed economiche della regione, (è caduto il governo di destra populista il Polonia dei gemelli ….., in Repubblica Ceca son 4 mesi che non si riesce a formare un governo,  questi i casi più eclatanti; l’economia rallenta e qualche critico accosta la situazione al crollo delle tigri asiatiche sempre nei favolosi anni ’90, ma dopo una bella analisi chiosa dicendo:

but…. economic fundamentals remain strong when compared to the Asian economies of the late 1990s and floating exchange rates give the Central European currencies much more of a cushion.
Hungary remains the exception because of its anemic growth, worrying budget and current-account deficits and the amount of consumer borrowing in foreign currencies. However, even before last month’s riots many foreign investors had already scaled back their exposure there and gone short on the forint because of their concerns over the country’s fiscal position.

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